Japan’s GDP (PPP) is $5.75 trillion. David Doyle, head of North America strategy and economics research, Macquarie Group. The balance of intake between temporary and permanent residents shapes the evolution of the labour market and society. In global markets, Canada is widely seen as an internationally competitive, energy rich, export-led economy. The average for the month 0.865. Over one million Canadians held down more than one job in 2018. But they aren’t. Newcomers enter Canada as both permanent and temporary residents. This brings the actual gap between supply and pipelines in 2018 to 1.27 million b/d. As with other developed nations, the country's economy is dominated by the service industry which employs about three quarters of Canadians. Scott Terrio, manager of consumer insolvency at Hoyes Michalos, @ScottTerrioHMA. These trends occurred amid several years of strong vehicle sales, increased vehicle imports from Mexico, the EU, and Asia, and production curtailments and plant closures by (some) automakers in Canada. Once this index crosses the yellow threshold, recession odds become more of a coin toss. How will policymakers and financial regulators react? India’s economy is the fifth-largest in the world with a GDP of $2.94 trillion, overtaking the UK … In a regular economic environment, short-term fixed-income instrument yield less than longer ones. Growing public debt is an important issue in several provinces, despite very low interest rates. Danielle Goldfarb, head of global research, RIWI Corp., @DIGoldfarb. As long as the household sector holds up, Canada’s largest trading partner won’t tip into recession, even with a contracting manufacturing sector weighing our index down. Should recent trends continue, the labour share will drift further upward, likely at the expense of business profits. While still only 3.5 per cent of all new vehicles, the share of EVs is increasing rapidly. What will 2020 bring? Lindsay M. Tedds, associate professor of economics and Scientific Director of Fiscal and Economic Policy, University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, @LindsayTedds. The increased reliance of U.S. manufacturing on capital, in an environment of falling capital costs and rising labour costs, might work to shield profitably at the margin. 12. Heated arguments over Canada’s “Dutch Disease” status occurred when oil prices were much higher than today. Although non-completion rates have fallen among First Nations and Métis young people over the decade since the 2006 Census, there has been very little progress in closing the gaps with Non-Indigenous people. Canada has remained on the edges of the opportunity, with a handful of deals over the years in Alberta – the only deregulated electricity market with real potential. Other provinces are starting to see the same dynamics and pressures. Canada remains a country divided. Indeed, crash data indicate that occupant fatalities are trending downwards. In the data, this appears as an increase in the proportion of employed dads with young kids that are absent from work, relative to dads with older kids. However, the tax shift still leaves a strange way to think about tax policy, as portion of revenues rather than tax rate. The portion raised from non-residential properties has been set to be as high as 60 per cent, with much of it coming from the shiny office towers that were home to Canada’s oil and gas head offices. This chart shows why. Our share of total U.S. imports fell sharply in the last decade, and not just because we’re selling our oil at lower prices per barrel. A second recession may exacerbate these tensions and further strain Canada’s confederation. Alexander MacDonald, investment analyst, Cowan Asset Management, @alex_macdonald. Kevin Milligan, associate professor of economics, Vancouver School of Economics at the University of British Columbia, @kevinmilligan. CAD to USD forecast for July 2021. Services exports conversely are growing more rapidly and make up an increasing share of total Canadian sales abroad. As this graph illustrates, my index of monthly economic activity in Alberta has been negative for most of 2019 – signalling a possibly contracting Alberta economy. This will create another powerful support behind the Canadian dollar. If young adults delay or forgo having sex, they are likely to delay or forgo the things that sex leads to, such as long-term relationships, children, and buying and furnishing a home — and that could create a whole other kind of sexual recession. And despite the emergence of some high-profile tech clusters, total Canadian investment in intellectual property products has also fallen outright. These trends are also the prime reason behind reports of labour challenges – 50 per cent of Atlantic businesses report challenges finding or retaining labour, posing a significant constraint to their growth. During this period a few countries’ yield curves did something not seen since 2006 – they inverted. Search results Compare tips To find the most fuel-efficient vehicle that meets your needs: . But many of our challenges are of our own making, such as our broken regulatory system, inter-provincial trade barriers, and a cumbersome and antiquated tax system. The Fed has determined that monetary conditions are appropriate so investors can expect them to be less active in 2020. Monthly GDP increased solidly in July, while projections pointed to another healthy expansion for August. 11. In 2040, Canada’s labour force size would be nearly 23.3 million people; at that point, immigrants will account for 30 per cent of Canada’s labour force compared with 24 per cent today. Last year, the province ran a $6.7 billion operating deficit. Moreover, the year 2018 stands in contrast to 1999, when automakers built over 3 million vehicles in Canada (nearly twice as many as they sold) and Canada had a surplus in vehicle trade of over $40 billion. Recent record highs in equity markets imply investors are already betting on this outcome. Last year the number of Canadian firms engaged in exports jumped past 45,000. Canada: Inflation increases to highest level since January 2020 in March. The most important Canadian economic charts to watch in 2020. Dominique Lapointe, economist, Laurentian Bank Securities. However, four domestic sectors with oligopolistic market structures — banks, Rails, Telecoms and Grocers — have moved from 18 per cent of the S&P/TSX market capitalization three decades ago to about 34 per cent today. Tammy Schirle, professor of economics, Wilfrid Laurier University, @tammyschirle. source: Statistics Canada. But both of those measures are considered lagging indicators, meaning that changes occur well after a recession or recovery may have begun. ; Click on the Save selected models button to create a saved vehicles list. Thanks in part to the sharp drop in Canadian mortgage rates that followed global policy loosening, the Canadian housing market is on a tear again. Canada, not so much. Interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have created a positive impulse into housing and consumer spending. Fact 2: Our collective national hedge fund operates with a currency mismatch. Sluggish business investment is a key factor behind Canada’s feeble gains in real GDP per person. This may reflect increasing numbers of women dating men older than they are, leaving more young men without partners. Since 2003, those deficits would have ranged from $3.7 billion to $13.9 billion. These gaps are also a trend to watch because there is good evidence that historic, recent, and current policy and practice is not working for, but against, improving outcomes among Indigenous people. Download historical data for 20 million indicators using your browser. He then announced that a cabinet retreat would be held to chart Canada’s economic course by Sept. 23, which, given his inept crew, foretells serious trouble for the Canadian economy. The good news is that these businesses have traditionally exhibited high profitability and investment returns, with limited volatility, while these oligopolies also generating better long-term ROE performance while also producing lower share price volatility. The share of disposable income required to service debt levels is at 30-year highs while interest payments are rising 4x the rate of disposable income growth. The current pattern points to lower near-term growth in the one per cent to two per cent range, but not an outright contraction. Federal transfers should be on everyone’s radar in 2020. GDP per capita on the other hand, gives us an idea of how the population is doing. Investment had been on track to return to its long-term trend following the financial crisis before suffering a sharp drop in 2015. Federal transfers, how they are attributed and how fast their envelope grows, were always at the epicenter of many federalism issues. This presents a significant financial burden to renting Canadians who require first and last month’s rent for a new apartment in the Greater Toronto Area. The extraordinarily high degree of correlation between the S&P 500 and the Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Conditions Index has underscored the importance of central bank policy to asset markets  returns on both sides of the border in the past 18 months. Quebec’s curve looks like a structural shift in worker and job availability in a growing and diversified economy. The figure here shows what the portion of revenues system has meant for the mill rate, the amount of property tax payable per $1,000 of assessed value, faced by the commercial and residential sectors in Calgary as well as neighbouring jurisdictions. Capturing the interplay between these moving parts is the labour share of national income, shown above as employee compensation as a share of net -domestic product (nominal GDP, less depreciation). 11. Foreign trade is responsible for about 45 percent of the nation's GDP and the United States is by far the largest trade partner. ; Click on the Compare selected models button to compare your chosen models. As of September, year-to-date prices were ¢12.6/kWh on average, up almost 12 per cent over the same period last year. If recent proposals to increase the generosity of EI parental benefits move forward, will the gap widen as more dads take on diaper duty? The rest of the world’s yield curves have followed the U.S. higher, except for one country. The opposite, of course, is the case for Canada. Gradually increasing immigration levels would add 5.3 million workers to Canada’s labour force between 2018 and 2040—an average annual labour force growth rate of 0.7 per cent. Canada’s vehicle production-to-sales ratio is expected to fall again in 2019, while its deficit in vehicle trade will exceed $4 billion. The figure shows Canada’s gross foreign assets (in black) and gross foreign liabilities (in red) quarterly since 2010, converted to trillions of Canadian dollars. IMPACT OF COVID-19: As of December 1, 2020, 12,229 deaths had been attributed to the pandemic in Canada, and the economy was forecast to contract by 7.1 percent for the year. On average, annual real GDP growth over 2019–20 is set to be cut by about 0.4 percentage points in the U.S. and about 0.3 percentage points in Canada. In contrast, the private sector excluding real estate has experienced a decline in total hours worked year-to-date in 2019, continuing a struggle that has been in place for the past six years. Anthony Scilipoti, CEO, Veritas Investment Research. Exports of goods and services account for 32 percent of GDP while imports account for 33 percent, subtracting 1 percent of total GDP. The difference is almost a full percentage of disposable income available to households to spend on anything else. First, the total number of new vehicles fell. In cases where policymakers only look at data for tax-filers, they leave out income information about one in ten working-age Canadians, including one in six Ontarians and Albertans. The Liberal Party 2019 platform (Forward: A Real Plan for the Middle Class) indicated that a Liberal government fiscal (budget constraint) rule would continue to be based on a declining debt-to-GDP ratio over the medium term planning horizon. Non-profit institutions serving households' final consumption expenditure and investment in inventories account for the remaining 2 percent. With global economic conditions potentially worsening, I am watching to see if lumber production continues to drop to the levels experienced in 2009. Or if you and your neighbour are seeing a deteriorating standard of living? Instead, consumers are powering growth. In December 2020, the construction industry of Canada contributed about 140.86 billion Canadian dollars to the total Canadian GDP. Aggregates are based on constant 2010 U.S. dollars. If these assumptions are realized, the new Liberal Government will face a choice between constraining implementation of its policy agenda or adjusting (relaxing) its fiscal rule. Share your thoughts with the hashtag #Chartapalooza and as always, enjoy. You’re going to hear a lot about emissions over the next 12 months. The recovery was more evenly distributed, as some increase in capital-intensive activity earlier in the decade was offset, more recently, by activity dominated by labour intensive industries, such as fabricated metal products, miscellaneous manufacturing, plastic and rubber. The Canadian dollar might be cheap compared to where it stood when oil fetched $100 per barrel, but is not yet cheap enough to allow other exports and related capital spending to thrive. While the worst of the initial contraction after 1929 was averted, this came at the price of years of subdued economic growth. However, this measure apparently wasn’t enough to offset the impact of macroeconomic conditions. Ian Lee, associate professor, Carleton University’s Sprott School of Business. In the 2020 Fall Economic Statement (FES), the federal government outlined a number of steps to support the economy during and after the pandemic period. This chart illustrates the impacts. As with other developed nations, the country's economy is dominated by the service industry which employs about three quarters of Canadians. If HOEP goes up then GA goes down and vice versa. This matters not just because individuals without a high school diploma, or any other credential, are the most likely to experience poverty and high unemployment. Housing investment rose at a record 30.2%, and exports surged 14.5%, notably to the US, the UK, Germany, Italy and France. The majority of consumer insolvencies in Ontario continue to be filed by non-homeowners as seen by the relatively flat trend in our Homeowner’s Bankruptcy Index. The relationship held true in the last two downturns – 1990 and 2008. Ben Rabidoux, president of North Cove Advisors Inc. Twitter:@BenRabidoux. Fed policy drives bond yields and Canadian bond yields have historically followed their U.S. counterparts whether it’s justified by the domestic economy or not. As newcomers become a major economic driver, both their levels and nature matter. One of my favourite charts explains why non-energy exports have been stagnant in the last 12 years. In 2020, the U.S. economy would be about 0.7 per cent smaller (and 0.6 per cent smaller for Canada) and the U.S. stock market worth about five per cent less than they would be if the Trump trade wars were stopped. Forecast Table. Couple the population growth with housing affordability and changing demographics and you get a perfect storm in the rental market. However, with a couple of cuts to the Federal Funds rate and a reversal of the quantitative tightening policy to one of balance sheet expansion, the United States’ yield curve has reversed its inversion. By 2018, for each new permanent resident, almost three temporary residents were admitted to work and/or study. The end of 2019 saw a meaningful increase in Alberta with 2 major deals signed by corporates in the fourth quarter for new wind and solar projects. That is, the total value of goods and services created/provided by a country. While this allows the province to export low-carbon electricity to neighbouring jurisdictions, exports are sold at HOEP for a fraction of what it costs to ensure that supply is available to Ontario consumers. Stephen Brown, senior Canada economist, Capital Economics. To encourage investment, especially after U.S. corporate tax cuts, Canada allowed businesses to write off capital investments quicker. With productivity growth stuck in neutral, achieving meaningful real wage growth for Canadian workers depends on it. The Canadian economy shrank 2.1 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2020, after expanding 0.1 percent in the previous period. However, the GDP was still 5.2% lower than in the same quarter last year. The starting values in 1981 do not matter much, but were estimated by assuming an effective interest rate of 7.5 per cent and dividing this into total interest paid in that year on each province’s debt. Are they satisfied that the financial system can safely manage more debt, or will they implement tighter lending and institutional regulations? That level stands 18 points above long-term averages and makes the U.S level of 48 per cent look pedestrian by comparison. This dynamic has been witnessed in Canada, with the labour share of aggregate income gradually climbing since the last recession. They are derived from the detailed information in the provincial public accounts, but are adjusted to a standard set of accounting rules, on a calendar year basis. In the same year, Canada’s deficit in vehicle trade was nearly $3 billion. The dark orange line offers a smoother trend line using a moving 12-month average, while the blue line shows the overall change in employment for that age category. In other words, hold on for another ride on the roller-coaster. rental income net of mortgage cost and other direct property expenses). But some of these gains might be temporary. In addition, business investment plunged 16.2%, the most since series began, reflecting limited construction activities, plant closures, low oil prices and heightened uncertainty. I don’t expect the chart’s correlation to remain this high, and it’s an open question what will replace credit conditions as the main driver of U.S. equity prices. To briefly recap, Canada’s rate has picked up a bit recently, but from just 1.8 per cent in 2018, close to the lowest since the early 1960s. Alberta Economic Forecasts. Scotiabank Economics has quantified the potential costs of the White House’s erratic trade policies for the U.S. and Canada if Pres. These demographic trends are driving the push for immigration in Atlantic Canada to maintain population levels, with immigration an increasingly important contributor to population growth across the nation. Meanwhile, household spending edged down 0.1 percent, after a 13.1 percent increase in Q3. I was early.) This scenario would feature a valuation effect on an unprecedented scale, raising the external wealth of the nation and (one hopes) acting as a stabilizer. Our estimate is roughly the same as the average tax refund claimed by low-income filers who filed a return with help from E4C, a non-profit community organization in Edmonton, that, like dozens of similar NGOs, is trying to make the household budgets of low-income Canadians a little easier to manage. That’s unfortunate, because owning remains a better financial decision than renting for people who might buy now, both through the wealth creation of rising home values but also lower monthly costs. While this chart argues that the bulk of the divergence has occurred over the past few years, other metrics of international competitiveness find that Canada has been slipping down the international rankings for at least a decade. It was the sharpest contraction since Q1 2009, reflecting measures imposed in March to contain the coronavirus pandemic, including non-essential business closures, border shutdowns, and travel restrictions. The term Dutch Disease was coined by “The Economist” in 1977 to describe the poor performance of the Dutch economy after a major natural gas discovery in 1959, called the Groningen field. What’s new is the flattening of the trend in truck and SUV unit sales. Also, government expenditure fell 1 percent, the sharpest drop since Q1 2013, mainly due to school closures and curtailed government administration. It is the 9th largest GDP by nominal and 15th largest GDP by PPP in the world. For example, the Bank of Canada has cited this as one of the top risks and vulnerabilities to the financial system, and hence, the economy for several years. Quebec’s manufacturing industry is toiling successfully, keeping total manufacturing afloat. We encourage Canadians to monitor the number of for-sale postings as a key metric to gauge where real estate prices are going. Men in their 40s are as sexually active as ever. The historical average NL/HS ratio has been approximately 5.8 per cent and currently sits at 5.3 per cent, which marks a 15-year low. At the same time, these larger and heavier vehicles have been cited as a contributor to the increase in pedestrian fatalities. The federal fiscal deficit will improve from the $219 billion recorded in 2020 but will remain uncomfortably high. A provincial breakdown of retail spending since 2014 shows a strong Ontario consumer that spends above the national average, but a struggling Alberta household that cannot find momentum. Several commentators have emphasized the strong headline national employment statistics in Canada in 2019, which have risen 1.9 per cent year-to-date through October. In 2040, the labour force would stand at 18 million people compared with 19.8 million in 2018. This is a far cry from three decades ago, when there were 20 young workers entering the labour market for every 10 retiring. Canadian-headquartered exploration and mining companies accounted for the largest portion of worldwide non-ferrous exploration budgets, reaching 31% in 2019. March 2021. Graph 4: U.S. Total Monthly Housing Starts As the chart shows, over the last eight years export growth for firms having more than one partner country was three times as large as that of firms trading with just the U.S. Investment decisions don’t just depend on the corporate income tax rate but also other features of corporate tax systems such as cost deductions, financial transaction taxes and taxes on capital purchases. Tariffs and rising policy uncertainty have taken a toll on world export volumes and have hit the U.S. industrial sector particularly hard. Vehicle assembly jobs pay well (35 per cent more than the Canadian average), the economic multiplier benefits are significant (every job in a vehicle assembly facility creates at least six others in upstream and downstream activities), and the industry represents an important source of innovation. This matters for at least two reasons. This gap – which has been observed among Quebec dads for whom such a program has long been in place – appears to be opening for dads in the rest of Canada in 2019. However other jobs measures are more useful as leading indicators of where the economy may be headed. Currently four per cent of foreign assets are denominated in Canadian dollars while 60 per cent of foreign liabilities are in Canadian-dollar denominated. We estimate that a non-filer in 2015 missed out on an average of about $1,500 in benefits. Forestry is not a large share of Canada’s economy, but the resulting transition is causing difficult times in many of B.C.’s small, forestry dependent communities. Central banks around the world cut interest rates in 2019, but the Bank of Canada sat on the side-lines. Trevor Tombe, associate professor of economics, University of Calgary and research fellow at The School of Public Policy (@trevortombe). Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau & Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp (CMHC). As of this writing, the share stood at 60.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2019, slightly above its long-term average, and up half a percentage point over the past year. The dollar volume of MLS residential sales during 2019 will be seven per cent, or more, higher than last year. It will be interesting for those in the latter camp, namely Constellation, Enghouse Systems and Descartes, to see if they can continue to find accretive acquisition targets that will keep their growth going. 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